It seems that Jupiter is the best swap aggregator on Solana, as it optimizes the best token swap rate across all decentralized exchanges for users. Equipped with Solana’s speed and low gas fee, analysis for the Jupiter swap volume should be fun.
This article is going to provide an analysis about the swap volume activity in Jupiter. How many $SOL get swapped out and at the same time, how many $SOL get swapped in with an interesting net flow chart to show users’ interest and confidence level.
Firstly, let’s do a quick recap about what is swap and how to define that. See this tx: 4zr3g3STE2ZiJvnpEeWYFxJWCY6wRfvwUfi5JTv34AG7epZsWZ3NkpFmHA5fbUaJWQ4eDgasbjH9zE4x6uv2wbhE
User use Jupiter Aggregator V2 to swap USDC with stSOL. Put it simple here, user use 99.99 USDC to interact with Jupiter Aggregator and get 1.0888 stSOL.
Then, let’s move on to our analysis, keep in mind that we have $SOL and other tokens and the following on-chain analysis is trying to figure out how many $SOL get swapped away/to.
Since January 1st, how much SOL has been swapped for other tokens using Jupiter per day?
Here, the definition of swap away is that users use $SOL to swap other tokens ($SOL => Others). Since Jan/1st, every day, there are around 87,113 $SOL get swapped away on average. The peak time is around Jan/24/2022, on that single day, there are 332,264 $SOL get swapped away.
Over the same time period, how much SOL has added from swaps using Jupiter per day?
Here, the definition of swap to is that users use other tokens to swap $SOL(Others => $SOL). On average, there are 54,282 $SOL get swapped in and there is no simple peak, but on Jan/7th, Jan/24th and Feb/2nd, these 3 days have the most swapped in volume.
If we look quickly for these 2 charts, seems interesting that they might have some correlation.
Over the same time period, what is the net flow for SOL on Jupiter?
Plotting the above 2 charts at the same time. We can find that most of the time, the swapped away amount is more than the swapped in amount, which means users tend to swap $SOL away to other tokens. The average is every day, there are around 32,831 $SOL get swapped away to other tokens. The maximal day is on Jan/24th/2022, there are 140,238 $SOL get swapped away.
Also, looking closely to the 3 most active days we mentioned, the more active that day, the more $SOL get swapped away.
It is hard to derive an accurate conclusion here, but the trend is obvious that people are losing confidence in $SOL since Jan/1st, which makes sense as the price dropped too much. I tried to draw a trend line, but not very obvious pattern here. Will keep an eye on that and keep posting once more and more people gain confidence and maybe in the near future we are going to see the green swapped in amount.